Our Global FX Outlook provides deep analysis, currency forecasts, and critical insights to help your business manage international trade with confidence.
November 2025 Key insights
From the Trump administration’s bold policies to Europe’s economic challenges, FX markets are experiencing dramatic shifts that demand informed strategies.
Trump, tariffs, and trade: Key drivers of volatility
Following Donald Trump’s re-election, US financial markets initially surged, signaling optimism. With the Republican Party poised to control both chambers of Congress, the so-called “red sweep” has driven market confidence, resulting in a stronger dollar, rising bond yields, and elevated equities. Yet, while political certainty may seem like a stabilizing force, the potential for tariff hikes and tax adjustments suggests that businesses may still need to brace for potential turbulence.
For example, currency reactions to the election were mixed but pointed toward future uncertainty. The USD/JPY initially surged by 1.9% post-election but settled to end the week down only 0.1%. Similarly, while the USD/CAD saw a mild decline of 0.2%, the euro lost 1.5% against the dollar over the same period—a reaction largely driven by trade concerns and Germany’s economic struggles.
With Trump’s aggressive trade policies likely to persist, businesses can expect ongoing volatility as markets respond to potential tariffs and trade-related policies.
Germany’s economic stagnation: A European dilemma
Germany’s economy—the backbone of the eurozone - is showing signs of stagnation, which could weigh heavily on the euro in the months ahead. Persistent low growth and subdued business confidence have held back the German economy, casting a shadow over the euro’s performance. With a possible snap election on the horizon, the euro’s volatility may continue as investors wait for clarity on Germany’s political landscape.
With doves taking control of the European Central Bank, a divergence in monetary policy between the ECB, the Fed, and the Bank of England is anticipated. This could lead to continued euro depreciation as other economies, particularly the US, experience relative economic stability and growth.
Approaching 2025: Political uncertainty persists
With the U.S. doubling down on trade barriers and Europe dealing with structural hurdles, FX volatility will continue to be a reality in 2025. As Trump’s administration introduces new policy moves, markets will respond swiftly, making it crucial to stay informed.
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Report created by George Vessy, Lead FX & Macro Strategist at Convera.
With 10+ years in financial services, George blends macroeconomic expertise with technical analysis to help global businesses navigate currency volatility and build effective risk management strategies. George is frequently quoted in leading financial publications, including Bloomberg and Reuters