Our Global FX Outlook provides deep analysis, currency forecasts, and critical insights to help your business manage international trade with confidence.

October 2025 Key insights

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, global financial markets are showing signs of greater stability, but don’t mistake calm for certainty. Volatility sits beneath the surface, driven by shifting policy signals, resilient economic data, and diverging central bank strategies. Understanding these dynamics is more critical than ever for businesses engaged in cross-border trade.

A rebounding USD and shifting sentiment
After hitting a three-year low in September, the USD staged a sharp rebound. Strong domestic data and a more cautious Federal Reserve have cooled expectations for further rate cuts, reviving a “good news is bad news” dynamic. In this environment, positive economic surprises can paradoxically trigger risk-off moves, as markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary easing.

This shift has had ripple effects across major currencies:

• EUR: Briefly surged to a four-year high against the USD before retreating, underscoring its sensitivity to US data and Fed policy.
• GBP: Dropped nearly 3% from recent highs, as rising UK yields were interpreted as stress signals rather than opportunities.
• AUD: Climbed to a near one-year high before hitting resistance, reflecting waning global risk appetite.

View the full report HERE 

Report created by George Vessy, Lead FX & Macro Strategist at Convera.
With 10+ years in financial services, George blends macroeconomic expertise with technical analysis to help global businesses navigate currency volatility and build effective risk management strategies. George is frequently quoted in leading financial publications, including Bloomberg and Reuters.