Our Global FX Outlook provides deep analysis, currency forecasts, and critical insights to help your business manage international trade with confidence.

September 2025 Key insights

Dollar derailed, risk reigns
Markets remain resilient in the face of renewed political and policy turbulence. The US dollar has slipped again, pressured by a dovish shift in rate expectations following a softer-than-expected jobs report and cautious remarks from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole.

Concerns over Fed independence continue to simmer. Governor Lisa Cook’s legal challenge to her dismissal has reignited scrutiny over institutional credibility, though markets have largely stayed anchored to the data.

Meanwhile, political risk has resurfaced in Europe, with French assets under pressure ahead of a September 8 confidence vote. The spread between French and German 10-year yields has widened, but the euro is holding firm, suggesting limited contagion, for now.

Despite these crosscurrents, risk appetite remains elevated. The S&P 500 has registered its 25th all-time high of the year, and the VIX continues to trade below its long-term average of 20. With the Fed’s path still data-dependent and European politics adding fresh uncertainty, markets are navigating diverging narratives.

This monthly guide provides analysis of the global trends and events driving FX volatility, to help SMEs and corporates uncover the potential opportunities or risks involved with cross-border trade. We hope that with better access to insights, more informed international trade and payment strategies may lead to better financial outcomes for our customers.

View the full report HERE 

Report created by George Vessy, Lead FX & Macro Strategist at Convera.
With 10+ years in financial services, George blends macroeconomic expertise with technical analysis to help global businesses navigate currency volatility and build effective risk management strategies. George is frequently quoted in leading financial publications, including Bloomberg and Reuters.